Arkansas football: 10 bold predictions for the 2019 season
The Arkansas Razorbacks bottomed out in 2018, going 2-10 in Chad Morris’s first year. That record included losses at Colorado State and at home to North Texas.
This year, the Hogs need to show signs of improvement, and they need to do it quickly. A good start would be to win every nonconference game, considering they don’t play any Power 5 foes (more on that later).
Can Morris and his squad turn things around and improve enough to keep fans happy this fall?
Here are 10 bold predictions for the 2019 season in Fayetteville:
1. The Razorbacks make a bowl game
Yes, that’s right. You heard it here, folks. The Razorbacks will improve from 2-10 in 2018 all the way to bowl eligibility in 2019.
How, you ask? Well, let’s break it down. I think the Hogs will win all 4 nonconference games (Portland State, Colorado State, San Jose State and Western Kentucky). That leaves 2 SEC games they have to win. I think they beat Ole Miss in Week 2, outscoring the Rebels in a battle of lackluster defenses.
Then, the 1 win that makes them bowl-eligible is …
2. Arkansas will win at Kentucky
I’m no Connor O’Gara. I think the Wildcats are going to struggle this year. I’m not as sold on QB Terry Wilson as others, and losing RB Benny Snell Jr. and LB Josh Allen (not to mention S Mike Edwards, CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. and others) will be devastating.
Both the Hogs and Wildcats have an off week before this game, but I still give Arkansas the edge. Yes, I think Mark Stoops is a great coach, but it’ll take him another year to get the Wildcats back on track after losing so much generational talent.
3. Trey Knox will have more than 1,000 receiving yards
Knox is already one of the most exciting freshman receivers in the country, and I think he’ll have a big impact for the Razorbacks. He torched the Arkansas defense for a 45-yard touchdown in the spring game, and that could become the norm.
The Hogs need someone to step up in the receiving corps, and Knox has drawn rave reviews from the second he stepped on campus this spring.
4. McTelvin Agim will record double-digit sacks
Agim is moving to the defensive tackle position after spending last year at defensive end. He’ll be tasked with replacing Armon Watts, who had 7 sacks to lead the Hogs. Agim had 4.5 last season.
This fall, a lot of attention will be paid to Agim, as the Razorbacks don’t have much experience returning along the defensive front. However, Agim seems to have bought into DC John Chavis’ system, and as a senior, he’ll be eager to have a big year. Look for him to be a disruptive force.
5. The secondary doubles its 2018 interception total
The Razorbacks finished with an SEC-low 5 interceptions last year, returning those 5 picks for a grand total of 5 yards. Even though Ryan Pulley and Dre Greenlaw, who combined for all 5, are gone, I think Kamren Curl and the secondary will top that this year.
Curl is a good player, and Montaric Brown seems ready to step up. I predict 10 picks for the Hogs. Heck, I’ll even predict the Hogs return one for a touchdown, like they did in this practice session, causing Chavis to become a meme.
6. Rakeem Boyd will have 1,000 rushing yards
Boyd is part of an interesting backfield mix, sharing carries with Devwah Whaley and Chase Hayden. However, he was the leader in 2018, rushing for 734 yards and 2 touchdowns on 123 carries.
That was good for a 6 yards-per-carry average, which led the Razorbacks. Heading into 2019, I expect him to get the ball more. When he has the ball in his hands, he’s dangerous.
Also, the Arkansas passing attack should be more dynamic this fall, and that’ll open up more running room for Boyd, even with inexperience along the offensive line.
7. The Razorbacks will not finish last in turnover margin
This kind of goes along with No. 5, but the Hogs had the worst turnover margin in the SEC (-10). The second-worst team was Texas A&M, which finished at -7.
As mentioned, the Arkansas defense finished last with only 5 interceptions. They did much better with fumbles, recovering 11. However, when you throw 18 interceptions, your turnover margin is going to be bad.
With a new quarterback in town in Ben Hicks, that should improve in 2019. With it, the Hogs’ turnover margin should get better, too.
8. Hudson Henry becomes a big part of the offense
Trey Knox and Treylon Burks aren’t the only freshmen I expect to have a big impact in the passing game. Henry, whose brother Hunter was an Arkansas legend, is a 4-star freshman, too. With starter CJ O’Grady dealing with an injury, Henry will be counted on early.
He comes from a great bloodline, and he was the No. 4 tight end in the 2019 class, so he has plenty of talent of his own. Even when O’Grady returns, Henry should continue to get looks in the Arkansas offense.
9. The Razorbacks don’t finish last in the SEC in punting average
Look, in a year after you finish 2-10, these are the sorts of things that get included in a “bold predictions” article. Freshman Reid Bauer handled most of the punting in 2018, averaging only 38.9 yards per boot. As a team, the Hogs averaged 37.5 yards per punt.
That was technically 13th in the SEC, ahead of Alabama. However, Alabama only punted 42 times, while the Hogs led the conference with 68 punts.
Look for Bauer to improve now that he has a full year of SEC action.
10. The Hogs will significantly improve their 3rd-down conversion percentage
The Razorbacks converted an abysmal 31% of their 3rd-down attempts in 2018 — by far the worst mark in the conference. Second-worst Ole Miss converted 35.3%.
With Hicks running the show at quarterback, I expect that to significantly improve. It would be difficult to be worse than they were in 2018, but Morris should strive for at least a 40% conversion rate.
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